Vanishing software

I recently came across this article.
Making that vital development decision
please don’t go off and read it. I was looking forward to reading it until I read the first paragraph.

I believe that within five years, all software development will be based on one of two virtual-machine technologies: Sun’s J2EE, which is based on its JVM (Java Virtual Machine), and Microsoft’s .NET Framework, which is based on the CLR (Common Language Runtime).

I made the interesting parts bold.
This article was written in “Jun 13, 2002”. What this means is that in a couple of weeks time 80% of all development work on the planet will cease. No more work will be carried out on Linux, Windows, macintosh, not to mention more than 80% of all dynamic websites.
After reading that sentence I was unable to continue. Anyone who believes something like that or expects me to is hardly qualified to make a rational judgement about J2EE or .NET.

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